Huang AT, Takahashi S, Salje H, Wang L, Garcia-Carreras B, Anderson K, Endy T, Thomas S, Rothman AL, Klungthong C, Jones AR, Fernandez S, Iamsirithaworn S, Doung-Ngern P, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Cummings DAT
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 May;119(20):e2115790119
PMID: 35533273
Abstract
SignificanceThe age of reported dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases, the severe form of dengue infections, has been increasing in Thailand for four decades. Factors underlying this shift remain poorly understood, challenging public health planning. Here, we found aging of the population and its effect on the hazard of transmission to be the dominant contributors, with temporal changes in surveillance practices playing a lesser role. With ongoing population aging, we expect a continuing shift of DHF toward older individuals, heightening the chance of clinical complications with comorbidities. With most other highly endemic countries facing similar shifts in age structure, the pattern is expected to appear elsewhere. Awareness is needed to improve diagnosis and treatment.