Category: Publications

Salje H, Cummings DAT, Rodriguez-Barraquer I, Katzelnick LC, Lessler J, Klungthong C, Thaisomboonsuk B, Nisalak A, Weg A, Ellison D, Macareo L, Yoon IK, Jarman R, Thomas S, Rothman AL, Endy T, Cauchemez S

Nature 2018 May;557(7707):719-723

PMID: 29795354

Abstract

As with many pathogens, most dengue infections are subclinical and therefore unobserved . Coupled with limited understanding of the dynamic behaviour of potential serological markers of infection, this observational problem has wide-ranging implications, including hampering our understanding of individual- and population-level correlates of infection and disease risk and how these change over time, between assay interpretations and with cohort design. Here we develop a framework that simultaneously characterizes antibody dynamics and identifies subclinical infections via Bayesian augmentation from detailed cohort data (3,451 individuals with blood draws every 91 days, 143,548 haemagglutination inhibition assay titre measurements). We identify 1,149 infections (95% confidence interval, 1,135-1,163) that were not detected by active surveillance and estimate that 65% of infections are subclinical. After infection, individuals develop a stable set point antibody load after one year that places them within or outside a risk window. Individuals with pre-existing titres of ≤1:40 develop haemorrhagic fever 7.4 (95% confidence interval, 2.5-8.2) times more often than naive individuals compared to 0.0 times for individuals with titres >1:40 (95% confidence interval: 0.0-1.3). Plaque reduction neutralization test titres ≤1:100 were similarly associated with severe disease. Across the population, variability in the size of epidemics results in large-scale temporal changes in infection and disease risk that correlate poorly with age.

Kalayanarooj S, Rothman AL, Srikiatkhachorn A

J. Infect. Dis. 2017 Mar;215(suppl_2):S79-S88

PMID: 28403440

Abstract

The global burden of dengue and its geographic distribution have increased over the past several decades. The introduction of dengue in new areas has often been accompanied by high case-fatality rates. Drawing on the experience in managing dengue cases at the Queen Sirikit National Institute of Child Health in Bangkok, Thailand, this article provides the authors’ perspectives on key clinical lessons to improve dengue-related outcomes. Parallels between this clinical experience and outcomes reported in randomized controlled trials, results of efforts to disseminate practice recommendations, and suggestions for areas for further research are also discussed.

Kang JY, Aldstadt J

Int J Environ Res Public Health 2017 Jul;14(7)

PMID: 28714879

Abstract

Dengue is a mosquito-borne infectious disease that is endemic in tropical and subtropical countries. Many individual-level simulation models have been developed to test hypotheses about dengue virus transmission. Often these efforts assume that human host and mosquito vector populations are randomly or uniformly distributed in the environment. Although, the movement of mosquitoes is affected by spatial configuration of buildings and mosquito populations are highly clustered in key buildings, little research has focused on the influence of the local built environment in dengue transmission models. We developed an agent-based model of dengue transmission in a village setting to test the importance of using realistic environments in individual-level models of dengue transmission. The results from one-way ANOVA analysis of simulations indicated that the differences between scenarios in terms of infection rates as well as serotype-specific dominance are statistically significant. Specifically, the infection rates in scenarios of a realistic environment are more variable than those of a synthetic spatial configuration. With respect to dengue serotype-specific cases, we found that a single dengue serotype is more often dominant in realistic environments than in synthetic environments. An agent-based approach allows a fine-scaled analysis of simulated dengue incidence patterns. The results provide a better understanding of the influence of spatial heterogeneity on dengue transmission at a local scale.

Srikiatkhachorn A, Mathew A, Rothman AL

Semin Immunopathol 2017 Jul;39(5):563-574

PMID: 28401256

Abstract

Dengue remains one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases worldwide. Infection with one of the serologically related dengue viruses (DENVs) can lead to a wide range of clinical manifestations and severity. Severe dengue is characterized by plasma leakage and abnormal bleeding that can lead to shock and death. There is currently no specific treatment for severe dengue due to gaps in understanding of the underlying mechanisms. The transient period of vascular leakage is usually followed by a rapid recovery and is suggestive of the effects of short-lived biological mediators. Both the innate and the adaptive immune systems are activated in severe dengue and contribute to the cytokine production. We discuss the immunological events elicited during a DENV infection and identify candidate cytokines that may play a key role in the severe manifestations of dengue and possible interventions.

Moulton SL, Mulligan J, Srikiatkhachorn A, Kalayanarooj S, Grudic GZ, Green S, Gibbons RV, Muniz GW, Hinojosa-Laborde C, Rothman AL, Thomas SJ, Convertino VA

J Med Case Rep 2016 Aug;10(1):233

PMID: 27553703

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Early recognition and treatment of circulatory volume loss is essential in the clinical management of dengue viral infection. We hypothesized that a novel computational algorithm, originally developed for noninvasive monitoring of blood loss in combat casualties, could: (1) indicate the central volume status of children with dengue during the early stages of “shock”; and (2) track fluid resuscitation status.

METHODS: Continuous noninvasive photoplethysmographic waveforms were collected over a 5-month period from three children of Thai ethnicity with clinical suspicion of dengue. Waveform data were processed by the algorithm to calculate each child’s Compensatory Reserve Index, where 1 represents supine normovolemia and 0 represents the circulatory volume at which hemodynamic decompensation occurs. Values between 1 and 0 indicate the proportion of reserve remaining before hemodynamic decompensation.

RESULTS: This case report describes a 7-year-old Thai boy, another 7-year-old Thai boy, and a 9-year-old Thai boy who exhibited signs and symptoms of dengue shock syndrome; all the children had secondary dengue virus infections, documented by serology and reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. The three boys experienced substantial plasma leakage demonstrated by pleural effusion index >25, ascites, and >20 % hemoconcentration. They received fluid administered intravenously; one received a blood transfusion. All three boys showed a significantly low initial Compensatory Reserve Index (≥0.20), indicating a clinical diagnosis of “near shock”. Following 5 days with fluid resuscitation treatment, their Compensatory Reserve Index increased towards “normovolemia” (that is, Compensatory Reserve Index >0.75).

CONCLUSIONS: The results from these cases demonstrate a new variation in the diagnostic capability to manage patients with dengue shock syndrome. The findings shed new light on a method that can avoid possible adverse effects of shock by noninvasive measurement of a patient’s compensatory reserve rather than standard vital signs or invasive diagnostic methods.